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Wednesday, 03 March 2010 10:47

 เห็นตลาดหุ้นไทยหลังผ่านศึกยึดทรัพย์ อดีตนายกฯทักษิณ มาได้ พาลให้นึกถึงสโลแกนบาดใจของ หนุ่มหัวใสพรีเซนต์เตอร์ เครื่องดื่มชูกำลัง ที่พูดไว้สั้นๆแต่ดุดันในความรู้สึกว่า เป้าหมายมีไว้พุ่งชน

 ก็จะไม่ให้นึกถึงได้ยังไง ตอนเปิดวิกมาช่วงต้นเดือนกุมภาฯ แม้จะมีแต่ข่าวลบข่าวลวงให้มั่วไปหมด ก็ทุบตลาดหุ้นไทยลงไปต่ำกว่า 700 ได้ไม่กี่มากน้อย

 แต่พอนักลงทุนตั้งหลักได้ เห็น 3 เกลอเสื้อแดง เป็นแค่ พล นิกร กิมหงวน ก็เลยปล่อยให้โปกฮาเรียกลูกค้าฮาร์ดคอร์กันไปตามเรื่อง ส่วนเงินในกระเป๋าที่ไม่กล้าควักกล้าซื้อมาก่อนนั้น ก็หันกลับมาซื้อกันเป็นเรื่องเป็นราว โดยเฉพาะนักลงทุนต่างชาติ ที่สรุปสิ้นวันทีไร ก็ซื้อสุทธิกันไปเพลินๆ วันละพันกว่าล้าน 

 แถมเมื่อวานนี้หนักมือเล่นไปกว่า 4 พันล้าน จนตอนนี้ดัชนีปาเข้าไป 730 กว่าแล้ว วอลุ่มก็ยังแน่นดีอยู่ พาให้กระชุ่มกระชวยกันทั่วตลาด

 ที่เป็นอย่างนี้ ไม่ใช่เพราะมีเซียนที่ไหน มาอ่านหมากการเมืองแบบขาดทะลุได้หรอกว่า หมอกควันทางการเมือง จะขึ้นต้นเป็นลำไม่ไผ่ แต่สุดท้ายเป็นได้แค่ไม้แคะหู แบบนี้ 

 ทุกคนอยู่กับความไม่รู้เท่ากันหมด และทุกคนก็ระแวดระวัง เหมือนกันหมดนั่นแหละ

 แต่สิ่งที่ทำให้บางคนออกมาใช้ความกล้านำหน้า มันก็อยู่แค่คำว่า “ผลตอบแทน”

 ปัจจัยการเมือง เป็นเรื่องที่พูดกันเอาไว้โก้ๆ ว่าจะห่วงกันอย่างนั้น จะกดดันตลาดกันอย่างนี้  ถามว่านักลงทุนคำนึงถึงมั๊ย ก็คงต้องคิดอยู่บ้าง หวั่นไหวบ้าง แต่ถามว่าจะเอาชีวิตการลงทุนมาห่วงอยู่กับการเมืองอย่างเดียวเลยหรือเปล่า ก็หามีคนหมู่มากที่คิดเช่นนั้นไม่

 เพราะโลกของการลงทุน สุดท้ายมันอยู่ที่ความเสี่ยง และผลตอบแทน ต่อให้เสี่ยงสูง แต่ผลตอบแทนงาม เสี่ยงแค่ไหนก็มีคนกล้าเสี่ยง

 วิเคราะห์กันได้ทั่วโลกว่า ปีนี้ยังไงภูมิภาคเอเชียก็มาแรงสุด เพราะเศรษฐกิจไม่ได้ล้ม แค่ก่อนหน้านี้ต้องเปลี่ยนจากวิ่งมาเดิน แต่ตอนนี้จากเดินกำลังจะกลับมาออกวิ่งกันอย่างจริงจัง ยังไงก็ราศีจับ

 ต่อให้ตลาดง่อยเปลี้ยเสียขาอย่างบ้านเรา แม้ราคีจะเยอะ แต่ราศีก็ยังพอจะมีให้จับอยู่ ยิ่งชาวบ้านชาวเมืองเขาถีบตัวกันขึ้นไปสูง หรือ เรียกภาษาตลาดว่าแพงแล้ว ตลาดหุ้นไทยก็ยิ่งดูมีน้ำมีนวลมากขึ้น

 จะไม่ให้แจ่มเตะตาได้ยังไง ราคาหุ้นก็ถูกล่อใจ ขณะที่ผลประกอบการไตรมาส 4 หรือทั้งปี 52 ก็ออกมาดีเกินคาด แถมหลายๆบริษัทจ่ายปันผลกันงามเหลือล้น กำไรปีนี้หมดแล้ว ก็ไปเอากำไรสะสมมาจ่ายให้อีก เปิดพระคลังตอบแทนกันขนาดนี้ มัดใจนักลงทุนไม่ได้ก็ให้มันรู้ไป

 เขียนมา ไม่ได้จะสมน้ำหนักพวกปอดไม่แข็งแรง หรือชอบแห่ตามกระแสทั้งบวกและลบ จนหาหลักยืนไม่ได้ แต่เพียงต้องการจะชี้ให้เห็นว่า ธรรมชาติของตลาดหุ้นเป็นยังไง และเบื้องหลังความเคลื่อนไหวที่แท้จริงมันอยู่ที่ปัจจัยใด

 การปั่นหุ้น หรือ การปั่นป่วนของสถานการณ์ต่างๆ มันก็เกิดขึ้นเพียวงชั่วครู่ชั่วยาม อาจจะนานเป็นเดือน หรือจะเกินเป็นปี แต่สุดท้ายเมื่อร้ายสุดมันก็ต้องมีแต่ดีขึ้น

 เมื่อมองตลาดด้วยใจนิ่งๆได้อย่างนี้ ต่อให้วันที่ 14 มีนาฯ จะมากันแสนคันรถ ล้านคน ได้เหมือนดังที่มีคนฟุ้งไว้ ก็ไม่มีอะไรน่ากลัว ถ้าไม่ถึงขั้นมายึดประเทศ หยุดมาตรการกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจทั้งหมดที่มีอยู่ได้ ยังไงจีดีพีก็ยังต้องโต ผลประกอบการก็มีแนวโน้มดีขึ้น ปันผลก้อนงามๆก็ยังเห็นกันอยู่

 เมื่อกันชนเหล่านี้ยังแข็งแรง และทำหน้าที่ได้ดี นักลงทุนที่ฉลาดพอ ก็จะมองเห็นโอกาส และเป้าหมายที่แท้จริง ที่คุ้มค่าแก่การพุ่งชน
 ไม่ใช่ปล่อยให้พวกบ้าๆ ถือผ้าแดงมาล่อให้วิ่งหัวหมุนกันไม่รู้แต่ละวัน เหมือนที่ผ่านมา ..

    

Written by :
platoo
 

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